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            ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 22, 2026
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            Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 22, 2025
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            Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
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            The labor-intensive nature of the construction industry requires workers to frequently perform physically demanding manual work, thereby exposing them to the risk of musculoskeletal injury (approximately 31.2 cases per 10,000 full-time equivalent workers). Exoskeletons and exosuits (collectively called EXOs here) are designed to protect workers from these injuries by reducing exertion and muscle fatigue during work. However, the usability of EXOs in construction is still not clear. This is because extant EXO assessments in construction were mainly conducted in laboratory environments with test participants who are not construction professionals. In this research, we conducted a pilot study to investigate the usability of EXOs in a real construction workplace. Four experienced workers were recruited to push/empty construction gondolas with and without a Back-Support EXO, HeroWear Apex. Three workers were recruited to install/remove wooden blocks between steel studs with and without two Arm-Support EXOs, i.e., Ekso EVO and Hilti EXO-001. Their motions, postures, heart rates, and task completion times were recorded and compared. The workers were also surveyed to gather their attitudes toward the EXO’s usefulness and ease of use. The study results demonstrated that the workers responded to the use of EXOs differently and consequently were not unanimously in favor of EXO adoption in practice. The preliminary results and findings from this pilot study help in building a foundation of understanding to improve EXO products to fit the needs of construction workers and foster EXO-enabled construction tasks in the future.more » « less
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            Exoskeletons and exosuits (collectively termed EXOs) have the potential to reduce the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) by protecting workers from exertion and muscle fatigue due to physically demanding, repetitive, and prolonged work in construction workplaces. However, the use of EXOs in construction is in its infancy, and much of the knowledge required to drive the acceptance, adoption, and application of this technology is still lacking. The objective of this research is to identify the facilitators, barriers, and corresponding solutions to foster the adoption of EXOs in construction workplaces through a sequential, multistage Delphi approach. Eighteen experts from academia, industry, and government gathered in a workshop to provide insights and exchange opinions regarding facilitators, barriers, and potential solutions from a holistic perspective with respect to business, technology, organization, policy/regulation, ergonomics/safety, and end users (construction-trade professionals). Consensus was reached regarding all these perspectives, including top barriers and potential solution strategies. The outcomes of this study will help the community gain a comprehensive understanding of the potential for EXO use in the construction industry, which may enable the development of a viable roadmap for the evolution of EXO technology and the future of EXO-enabled workers and work in construction workplaces.more » « less
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            Abstract Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.more » « less
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